Tonight's Lottery Drawing Statistics.

"Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis" (Dwhite95) 01/13/2016 at 17:50 • Filed to: None

0

12

Acording to 538 there is upwards of a 97% chance that at least one person has a winning ticket. They also estimate that just over 1 billion tickets are going to be sold by the drawing... !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!!

Also, that winner is clearly that going to be me.

Matt Nichelson > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis 01/13/2016 at 17:53

0

And that means clearly you are buying us all new Ferraris when you do, right? Right?

MonkeePuzzle > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis 01/13/2016 at 17:56

2

K-Roll-PorscheTamer > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis 01/13/2016 at 18:01

0

Did you buy tickets? My mother gave me money to buy 3.

Ross Kraz > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis 01/13/2016 at 18:03

0

Can someone explain this to me?

An MSN article said that there’s a 15% chance that nobody will pick the right numbers. But the odds are 1:292,201,338. Which means that if every random combination of numbers is picked, and if over a billion tickets are sold, there would be at least 3-4 winners. But...that’s not the right logic in statistics terms apparently.

Statistics confuses me.

Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis > Ross Kraz 01/13/2016 at 18:07

0

Personally, I’d trust 538 here. They’re known for putting some real quality articles out there.

Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis > K-Roll-PorscheTamer 01/13/2016 at 18:07

0

Yeah, its worth the cost to day dream all day.

Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis > MonkeePuzzle 01/13/2016 at 18:08

0

Is it really 1-4 now? Huh...

Jayhawk Jake > Ross Kraz 01/13/2016 at 18:14

0

You aren’t accounting for overlapping numbers.

Not every ticket is unique. So it’s possible that there are over a billion tickets but not every unique ticket combination.

Scott > Ross Kraz 01/13/2016 at 18:15

0

Except not every possible combination is necessarily picked. Also you factor in that previous drawing did not have winners so the odds increase that eventually there will be a winner. Yes if every single possibility was picked it would be guaranteed that someone is a winner, but since many combinations go unpicked, and many choices are picked by multiple people they have to say what are the odds that it is a picked combination. For example many people pick 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 as their numbers because statistically it has as much odds as any other set of numbers. Yet its very unlikely anyone picks 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28.

Sarcun > Ross Kraz 01/13/2016 at 18:17

0

I’d assume: (292,201,337/292,201,338)^(1,008,000,000) which is about 3.2%. This is the chance of every person not having a winning ticket. [Note that this assume a very high level of independence and some extrapolation.].

Saracen > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis 01/13/2016 at 19:02

0

Yep. 538 knows their shit...pretty sure everyone that works there is a genius statistician.

traderQAMobileTestAutomationMobileBoostOn > MonkeePuzzle 01/13/2016 at 19:56

0

Some real optimism in both cases there.